Exchange Rate Dropping…. Thoughts?

[Tiberius]

Hi All,

Now that i'm all booked for mid May i've been keeping an eye on the exchange rate the past few days and noticed it's dropped quite a bit.

I know there's no way of telling but what are peoples thoughts, is it headed south now or do you think it will rise again?

I think i'm going to exchange a chunk now anyway or i'm bound to regret it in the long run.

[redrhino12]

I also think its on the down so got some at 3.50 to the £ the other day.

Gene

[Macca]

It's gone down from 3.60 to 3.45 in the last wk nears us, so glad I got some last week!

[chezza100]

The whole rate saga of the last few months has been very interesting.

It could go down or stay as is or even climb again, it impossible to say and because of the unknown I bought mine in January.

It will be interesting to see what happens when the season begins.

[Chris221273]

We changed up when the rate was 3.72 and on hearing some places are charging 8tl a pint I'm glad we did!
Have watched it daily since we exchanged and it's been steady really up until the elections started which has seen it drop to 3.43 with travelfx yesterday.

[mansy]

I also got mine when it was really high, in fact I took a chance & changed mine for both our June and September holidays. Glad I did now.

[markglasgow]

Yes the recent election results have brought a sense of stability which has affected the rate recently.

The support in favour of Erdogan was just what the markets hoped for but most analysts are still very wary about what the future holds for the Lira.

It seems unlikely that the Lira will make a full recovery anytime soon. With most forecasts predicting that unless Erdogan takes a more presidential role, which may allow his advisers to build political bridges, the Lira looks far from returning to last summers rate.

[smc4761]

if the rate does remain high I would expect that the prices in the resort will rise to reflect the good exchange rate. Should the arate start to drop I would hope that this would be reflected in the prices in resort From an entirely selfish perspective I hope the rate does drop and with it the resort prices I was very lucky and managed to get lira at 3.72 a few months ago, so if it does drop to say 3.20/3.30 this would benefit me

it is however very much a lottery. i was in resort last May when it was 2.80. When my sister was there in September the rate had increased to 3.20, the highest i had ever seen it, so i asked her to bring me back £200 worth of lira, it then went way up to 3.80 a few months ago. its a chance you take

[Tiberius]

I buckled and ordered a chunk at 3.45 the other day, it's a damn sight more than the 2.5ish we were getting a couple of years ago when we were there so I'm happy. I'll keep an eye on it and if it drops much more I might change the rest.

One thing I don't get though is this perception I've seen here and a number of other threads that the prices in the resort will rise even more than normal if the POUND/LIRA exchange rate is good.....why?

Prices rise in the resort every year due to inflation and the rise in taxes, cost of living etc, I get that, that's fine and totally acceptable. But why should they rise even further again just because 'our' exchange rate is high, isn't that just plain wrong? And doesn't it just over inflate the resort? I can't think of an instance in this country where a pint of beer has risen temporarily by 50p, or a steak dinner by £3 because the polish are getting a cracking exchange on the pound

Possibly I'm looking at it completely wrong but that seems to be the perception I'm picking up.... Any who roll on May 12th

[chezza100]

I think people are concerned about inflated prices because the Lira has lost ground against most other currencies, not just the £.

[MrT]

What you have to bear in mind is the fact that a lots of Russians frequent Turkey. When you look at the exchange rates i.e. Rouble/Euro/Lira (as at 01/11/2013) you find that the Russians will be 2.5% better off. Therefore it would be a little unwise for the Turks to inflate prices generally and also they would upset their regulars.

[markglasgow]

Be very interested to hear the first reports of what the prices in the resort are. We can expect Alcohol to rise by around 10-15% thanks to the recent tax prices but we really should be notice the difference in cost for food and trips etc.

I trust the good folks of Icmeler to price their goods and services accordingly. I'm sure they won't let us down!

[dksbbs]

Be very interested to hear the first reports of what the prices in the resort are. We can expect Alcohol to rise by around 10-15% thanks to the recent tax prices but we really should be notice the difference in cost for food and trips etc.

I read that the 3 bells have increased and Efes from 7TL to 8TL which is a 14% increase so your estimate is about right. I know the government increased the duty by 18% which be a major part of that increase.

[sueles810]

Yes but also in same post it said Tin tins efes is 5.5 lira I know ehere I will be going
sue

[Tiberius]

Again the alcohol increase is expected due to the increase in the tax on it as is a general inflation increase which you see every year.

Obviously it remains to be seen but I really can't see why prices would increase further due to Brits getting more lira for their £. The only thing a weak lira should affect is import/export which should be covered by the general inflation increase. Any large increase above this solely due to the exchange rate is just greed.

As mentioned though, still remains to be seen if it happens or not.

[smc4761]

I think prices will increase to reflect the higher exchange rate. The lira has fallen against all major currencies, eg pound and Euro so the Turks will be aware that we will all have extra lira in our pockets. Interset rates for borrowing have alao increased significantly so the Turks will needs to try to recoup some of their costs

It will still be good value, even at 7 lira a beer for example thats less than £2,

[daisysun]

I think if the price of everything increases just because of the exchange rate that is wrong. In that case the exchange rate may as well just stay the same/low as we will not benefit at all which like someone else said is wrong and not fair. In that case if prices have risen because of the previously high rate to the pound but then the rate drops again but prices dont then the only people who have benefited are the fortunate people who were in a position to change their money early and the others will find it expensive so therefore won't spend as much so then the turkish will loose out in the long run surely? ? Whereas if prices increased only jyst as they do yearly without reflecting the exchange rate(all) tourists will feel the benefit and be able to spend more benefitting tourists and the turkish. Just my thoughts and opinion and maybe im way off the mark but can't see the point in price increase because of the exchange rate. Just seems pointless and counterproductive to me???

[Tiberius]

I think if the price of everything increases just because of the exchange rate that is wrong. In that case the exchange rate may as well just stay the same/low as we will not benefit at all which like someone else said is wrong and not fair. In that case if prices have risen because of the previously high rate to the pound but then the rate drops again but prices dont then the only people who have benefited are the fortunate people who were in a position to change their money early and the others will find it expensive so therefore won't spend as much so then the turkish will loose out in the long run surely? ? Whereas if prices increased only jyst as they do yearly without reflecting the exchange rate(all) tourists will feel the benefit and be able to spend more benefitting tourists and the turkish. Just my thoughts and opinion and maybe im way off the mark but can't see the point in price increase because of the exchange rate. Just seems pointless and counterproductive to me???

My point exactly daisy sun.

[chezza100]

I see what you are saying but businesses need to make money.

If the Lira gets close to 4 to the £ again and they charge say for example 40tl for a fillet steak that will only be £10.

If the rate drops to 3 to the £ that makes the same steak £13 - which isn't a huge amount & certainly not expensive.

I also understand businesses have been known to change their prices throughout the season.

8tl for an Efes seems ok to me.

[smc4761]

I do agree with the points raised by Daisysun however I think that the prices will still go up not only in line with inflation but in general. The Turks are not daft and no that we all will have more lira compared to normal, for example since I was there in May last year, the lira has increased by about 25%. They may have seen their costs increased by the poor exchange rate and interst rate rises, so they have to recoup the costs somehow.

Of course I would love the prices to go up only in line with inflation, wouldn't we all, butthink we have to be realistic. It will still represent great value compared to the Eurozone prices